Blog Archives

Summer(s) Equinox

Happy Sunday y’all. Hopefully everyone’s rooting interest in the NFL is coming up aces today, and a special shout out to all the Chicago Bears fans out there today. Jay Cutler continues to be the most mercurial quarterback in the NFL, but Martellus Bennett managed to bail him out with two more touchdowns to lead the Bears to a 31-30 victory over the hapless Christian Ponder and the largely ineffective Adrian Peterson. In all honesty, the Bears should’ve won that game by double digits, but Bad Jay and poor special teams on the opening kickoff essentially spotted Minnesota 21 points. I digress…

It seems we can’t go one weekend this month without some sort of major economic or geopolitical news item that will impact the market. This was already shaping up to be a monumental week with the Fed meeting and the potential of a reduction in monthly asset purchases, but Larry Summers decided to throw us a curveball and withdrew from the race for the Fed Chairman appointment once Ben Bernanke takes his leave. Many have speculated that Summers’ confirmation would be an arduous process as many see him as an abrasive individual, with his detractors citing his tarnished tenure as president of Harvard University – specifically, his treatment of women. Janet Yellen, believed to be a far more dovish candidate than Summers, becomes the de facto leader in the clubhouse. Donald Kohn, a former Fed vice chairman, and former Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner remain popular candidates among others.

The impact of Summers decision was fairly easy to predict before futures even opened. Given his aversion to continued quantitative easing and a more hawkish stance overall, stocks would be poised to rise should Summers not receive the nomination. However, given the fact that Summers is pulling out this early, S&P futures surged on the open this evening to the all-time highs, and the bulls appear to be in full control once again. While it is  not a foregone conclusion that Yellen will be appointed (and some close to the Obama camp have stated the President would prefer to go elsewhere now that Summers, an Obama favorite, has withdrawn), we would expect even interest rate sensitive stocks to rise tomorrow as well, which does not bode well for our $HD and $T positions. Still, we should note that there is plenty of time for our theses on those names to play out. On the plus side, our long positions in $NFLX, $FCEL and $GOOG should get a nice lift. Obviously, we wish we were leaning a little longer, but we should see some nice gains Monday regardless.

Tomorrow should provide some opportunities for intraday trades at the bell. With so many events that could shake markets this week, it may be prudent to take some profits on long positions at tomorrow’s open should we sustain this rally overnight (and there is little reason to believe that we won’t). Still, it is easier to have conviction to the long side as the market has pulled off something of a stealth rally in the past week or two. We’ll be back in the morning to assess what is moving, but until then, enjoy the rest of your NFL Sundays!

Post Game: Crossroads

Interesting day and a good start to the week. The S&P 500 was remarkably strong all day and basically moved higher all day after a brief stagnant period mid morning. Several names saw strong action (in particular, the casinos $WYNN and $LVS, two names we highlighted last week as potential breakout candidates), and we have a number of events that will occur in the coming days that will help markets. First, we should receive some definitive news from President Obama regarding the outlook for Syria both tonight and tomorrow morning. However, the market appeared to respond positively to news that Russia had called for Syria to hand over its chemical weapons, though the validity of Syria’s willingness is being questioned by US officials. Look for Obama to provide some answers there.

The biggest news for an individual name undoubtedly will be coming from Cupertino tomorrow and China on Wednesday as Apple $AAPL will certainly unveil the iPhone 5S and its less expensive cousin, the iPhone 5C. There is also talk that Apple will unveil a revamped iPad and iPad Mini, but we believe the bigger catalyst for Apple is a rumored deal with China Mobile. There is always the possibility that all of this news is already baked into the stock price, but the impact of a China Mobile deal is beyond compare. A deal would signal increased competition with Samsung in the middle-tier smartphone market, and China Mobile is far and away the largest mobile provider in the world, and while some have speculated that a cheaper iPhone will slash Apple’s margins, Tim Cook’s expertise is supply chain management, and this may be his opportunity to deliver a high margin, low cost phone that could consume market share in China away from Lenovo and Samsung. There is also the possibility that Apple has an Ace up its sleeve that no one is expecting tomorrow. While the odds of such an event transpiring are low as the street has become quite good at predicting the outcome of Apple’s showcases, the possibility remains. Beyond the headlines, the technicals have been shaping up nicely for Apple’s stock. The stock has been in a strong trend since bottoming in late June. We kept our weekly options on and remain bulls on Apple long term via stock.

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We also maintained our short on $TSLA via next week’s $155 put options. The stock failed to maintain a mid-day breakout off the lows and began to sell off once again into the end of the session. Bulls have been quick to defend this name and its difficult to have conviction to the downside after what has been a truly breathtaking run for the electric car maker. Still, we think the stock has a date with the 20 day (and that date may even come tomorrow), and that should serve as a major proving ground for the stock. $TSLA has tested the 20 day several times and has rallied well of that level in each instance. While it is difficult to fight what has been a prolonged uptrend, this is still a car company, and whether you’re a believer in fundamentals or not, there is not a car company on the planet that justifies the valuation that $TSLA is commanding right now. The stock is an incredible growth story and perhaps there is a chance they can pioneer a secular transition to electric vehicles (which I would have to believe is the long-term bull case), but the faster it ascends, the more likely the stock is due for a correction. We love Tesla and frankly would love to own one of their cars, but the market has a way of pulling the rug just when the party really starts to rock. If we get a test of the 20 day, watch the action between $155 and $157. For those of you that follow Scott Redler from T3 Live, this area could serve as one of Scott’s patented “Red Dog Reversals.” A break of that level and we could see a major sell off trigger in Tesla.

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We were pleasantly surprised by the action in $FCEL today. The stock ripped to $1.36 on solid volume after fading a substantial portion of the earnings move to $1.41 in the last couple of sessions. While we think a gap fill to $1.25 or so is still possible, the stock continued to see action after hours and tagged $1.38 on light volume. We remain long via options and think $FCEL is a tremendous long-term opportunity. Keep an eye on this one for a breakout if it can get above the earnings high of $1.41.

We stuck with our $JASO momentum long after the stock ran into some resistance around $9.40. The chart still looks strong here and could really get going over $9.50. Our taper plays didn’t do us any favors today as just about everything was green today along with the broader market. Still, $HD failed to reclaim its 8-day and $T may be forming a bear flag. We posted a more detailed look at treasury yields and how they impact big dividend names like $T earlier today, so be sure to check that out.

Make sure to check out Obama’s interview tonight while you’re watching Monday Night Football, and as always feel free to engage us on Twitter (@VikingTrader14) or shoot us an e-mail at vikingtrader14@gmail.com.

 

Mid-day Update: Tesla Under Fire, Apple Racing

Great start to the week. The S&P defended the low of the day very well this morning before grinding higher to the 1667 we sit at now. We haven’t had a whole lot of major news items to deal with in the early going, but there has been plenty of action in individual names that has created a lot of opportunities.

Our biggest gainer thus far today is our $AAPL position. Our options are trading roughly 50% higher from the close on Friday and the stock hung tough while the market was defending the lows this morning. We saw buyers consistently step in around the $504 level that gave us conviction to hold on to our options, and the stock has grinded to $507 and continues to look strong. We may take down some exposure heading into the events, but the stock looks so strong it is hard to not extend another day (at least) with our options.

$FCEL is getting a nice lift today as we remain long the stock via options. We added to our $HD put position as the stock is struggling to reclaim its 8-day EMA. Keep an eye on that one as the chart looks incredibly bearish.

We took a feeler position on another momentum/breakout candidate in JA Solar Holdings $JASO. This is a volatile stock that has traded in a huge range in 2013, but the stock is forming a rounded bottom pattern and there is huge potential for a breakout over $9.50 that could send the stock well over $10. The YTD high sits at $11.40, and there is essentially no resistance to that mark if the stock can get going. Image

We also initiated a short position in $TSLA today via next week’s $155 puts. We’ve touched on shorting Tesla a couple of times over the last few days, and today has been the first move down with some conviction in quite a while. A test of the 20 day SMA around $157.20 seems imminent if the stock cannot move higher before the end of the session. If the 20 snaps, it could be bombs away for the stock. Still, this stock has been incredibly resilient, so don’t press too much if you’re making money. It’s still well above the Ichimoku cloud and it doesn’t take much for this stock to reverse its course.

We took a question on Twitter regarding our AT&T $T position and why tapering would impact the stock so much. It’s actually a relatively simple thesis – the big dividend players hate rising interest rates. If and when the Fed begins to reduce its bond buying, we should see the 10-year yield sustain a move above 3% which crushes equities that are known as strong dividend payers. Utilities and Telecom stocks frequently attract investors with attractive dividend yields, and those names have the most to lose if treasury bond yields begin to rise. AT&T’s chart looks particularly bearish in our view, which is why we have been buying puts over the last few weeks. Here’s a chart comparing $T and $DTYL, the bullish 10-year ETF. For those who are new to fixed income, the price-yield relationship is inverse: as yields rise, prices fall. $DTYL and $T are moving virtually in lockstep.

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We’ve been preaching prudence for several days as this market remains extremely headline driven, and any news from a number of ongoing story lines could catapult the market in either direction. As we were writing, $TSLA absolutely ripped off the lows to $161 and has already retreated under $160. Markets and stocks turn quickly! Keep. Your. Head. On. A. Swivel.

Mid-day Update: Jobs, Obama, Putin Take Center Stage

Pretty interesting morning with plenty of action to investigate. The jobs number was just shy of abysmal, considering all the absurd downward revisions to previous numbers. The unemployment rate continues to be a fabrication as US labor participation rates are basically sitting at a generational low, and even the 169,000 jobs that were added in August were fairly flimsy. The markets have maintained the “bad news is good news” mantra that has catalyzed several legs of the 2013 rally, but we had a second piece of news that throttled markets shortly after the jobs number. Russian President Vladimir Putin injected some fear into the markets by stating that Russia would back Syria against any foreign attackers, namely the US. The S&P’s sell off from the morning’s initial highs accelerated on these comments, shaving roughly 20 points in 30 minutes. President Obama quickly issued a statement and took questions regarding the Syrian situation, reinforcing his stance that Assad’s use of chemical weapons should not be tolerated. The S&P quickly reversed off the lows and proceeded to grind higher over the next hour before settling in around 1,660, right back at the morning highs.

ImageSeveral stocks followed the broader markets V movement, with names such as $AAPL, $GMCR and $GOOG moving lower before eventually recouping early losses. In the case of $GMCR, we saw heavy put volume in the September $80 contracts that caught our eye, and we initiated a position at $1.86 that is working nicely for us at the moment. We also attempted to play a continuation trade in $IMMU that did not work out as the stock lost momentum, and we took a small loss. We’ll stick with the $GMCR trade as long as it continues to fade towards session lows, which could make for a nice day trade.

Image$FCEL has traded in a tight range for most of the day on heavy volume once again, and we are encouraged that the stock is holding its range from yesterday. We continue to see heavy (and we do mean HEAVY) $T put buying, with open interest on our October $31 contracts pushing 60,000. Those puts have appreciated today and we continue to see downside potential in the chart. $HD sold off along with the broader market and has rebounded some here in the middle of the day, although we wouldn’t be too concerned until the stock can regain its 8 day. Could be quiet here for the rest of the day, but we’ll keep our eyes peeled for any opportunities.

 

Post Game: Beware the Jobs Number

Interesting day out there despite a deep, deep lull mid-day that saw little volume across the board. With the 10-year hovering near 3% and the growing sentiment that tapering in September is a foregone conclusion, the $SPY told off a decent amount in the last hour of trading. With many calling tomorrow’s jobs number the most important ever, we took down some of our exposure to $FCEL to lock in some profits and up our cash position to allow some mobility tomorrow. We anticipate there will be far more opportunities tomorrow that can be carried over the weekend, and we welcome the volatility.

Let’s dive in, shall we? The big theme of the day was a strong sell-off in equities with interest rate exposure, including names such as $T, $HD, $LEN and $TOL. We highlighted the absurd move in $LNKD in our mid-day update, and $TSLA continued to muddle along in a tight range with light volume. The casinos looked alright today, with $WYNN leading the way up nearly 1%. $NFLX continued its flirtation with $300 while $AMZN remains within shouting distance as well.

We saw a number of small-cap names breakout including $HIMX, $RMTI and of course $FCEL. In terms of names we have a stake in, we were happy to see $T erase its gains from yesterday and boost the level of our puts. Put buying in AT&T has been heavy and the stock’s chart looks brutal. Any definitive word on tapering, and it could be curtain’s for AT&T’s stock. It is on a collision course with a major test of a two year break out channel, with support around $32.75.

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We decided to be prudent with our $FCEL position and took our stock position off for a nice profit. We still have our call options on as we think there is plenty of time for the stock to get going to higher levels, especially once we get the September option expiration out of the way.

However, we did initiate a new trade to the downside, buying the October $67.5 puts in Home Depot $HD. This stock has been on an absolute tear this year as it has been bolstered by a recovery in the housing market. However, as housing stocks have turned lower in recent weeks, $HD’s momentum has waned considerably. Given the stock’s reliance on the housing market for growth, rising rates could have a substantial bearish impact. The chart has also taken a turn for the worse since earnings. The stock has stayed above the Ichimoku cloud for the duration of 2013, testing the lower bound of the cloud just three of four times throughout the year and immediately bouncing each time. However, the stock appears to be rolling over and has broken through the cloud to the downside. The stock is hovering above support at $72.50 and could enter a key channel between $71.50 and $72.50 on tapering news.

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While we don’t necessarily believe tapering is bearish for the market overall, we think $HD and $T could be particularly exposed to rising rates, and we think these trades present compelling opportunities as risk-reward setups.

Bonds, Bonds, Bonds

Morning y’all. Sovereign debt and economic stimulus is making all the headlines with the US  and German 10-Year yields inching higher. The US 10Y is trading at roughly 2.94% while the German bund clipped 2% for the first time since 2012. The ECB is leaving benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.5%, and the Japanese yen crossed 100 while the Nikkei rallied overnight for modest gains.

S&P futures are more or less flat this morning ahead of perhaps the biggest jobs data we’ve seen since the last release (rimshot!). In all seriousness, today’s jobless claims and Friday’s jobs report will be paramount in the decision making process regarding tapering, which should accelerate the rise of rates. While recent jobs data has shown decent growth, we’re not convinced that the underlying economy is as stable as some of the pundits would have you believe. With that said, we think it is indeed time to taper to allow this market to make a directional move without being throttled by every headline coming out of the Fed. Look for a lot of commentary regarding tapering in the coming days, while headlines out of the G20 and continued discussion regarding the Syrian situation could serve as shocks to the market. We would expect the market to take a definitive direction following today’s jobless claims.

On the company front, not a ton of news this morning. Yahoo $YHOO made a “splash” by unveiling a new logo… yawn. The stock has been on quite a tear this year, but Marissa Mayer is going to need to start delivering sooner rather than later, and we’re not sure how spending $1 billion on Tumblr is going to radically alter the face of the firm. Samsung is still in the spotlight after yesterday’s product reveal, setting the stage for Apple’s $AAPL event next week. The perpetual turnaround story at Groupon $GRPN received another shot in the arm from Morgan Stanley with an upgrade to overweight. Groupon has been acquiring warehouses to improve distribution of its consumer goods, and the company’s mobile efforts have shown improvement. As Chicagoans, we’ve always had a healthy disdain for the Groupon platform and in the few times I’ve been to the site, I’ve rarely found deals that are even of vague interest to me. Still, it’s hard to argue with the direction of the stock, and it seems like getting Andrew Mason out of the way has reignited the fervor of growth surrounding this name. Still, we can’t see Groupon becoming a serious competitor for Amazon $AMZN just yet, as some have speculated.

We’ll be looking to manage our $FCEL position today as the company has surged higher following a strong earnings report. The conference call is slated for this morning and we will be looking for further commentary on profitability in the coming quarters. Seasonally, this stock has performed well during fall trading, and we may be hesitant to exit our positions if the stock can hold gains today. We’ve been preaching it all week, but it remains difficult to have conviction in either direction with so many external variables impacting markets, and this is an environment that presents very few buying opportunities for long-term holdings. For now, we will stay nimble and try to be extremely selective when taking day, swing and momentum trades.

Post Game – $FCEL Comes Up Roses

Now that’s more like it. Today was a much better directional day for those looking to trade momentum as the market didn’t have much of a reaction to the Senate’s approval of military action in Syria. The S&P 500 traded higher roughly 1% before moving sideways for most of the afternoon. The stock encountered some volatility as news trickled out from Washington that the Senate Foreign Relations Panel had approved the use of force by a slim 10-7 vote. Still, the full Senate and House of Representatives need to sign off on the plan before action can be taken, and those prospects were dealt a significant blow as some lawmakers voiced their disdain (including John McCain, though he is pushing for a more widespread campaign in the Middle East that will undoubtedly be meet with heavy resistance). The markets digested this news at the end of the day and still managed to close relatively close to the highs.

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We received a healthy amount of broad market and company specific news today, including the most recent edition of the Fed’s “Beige Book,” which is more aptly described as the state of affairs in the US economy. The most recent report showed moderate growth from most districts spanning July and August, boosted by stronger housing and car sales activity. This data was reinforced by solid August auto sales reports from both General Motors $GM and Ford $F. Samsung was the focal point of the lunch hour as the Korean tech giant introduced its Galaxy Note III phablet, a refreshed Galaxy Note 10.1 tablet and the all-new Samsung Gear Smart Watch. While the Smart Watch boasts some interesting features and could be a compelling device in conjunction with a Samsung smartphone, none of the devices felt particularly revolutionary, with most new features in the phablet and tablet feeling incremental at best. Apple $AAPL shareholders did not appear too concerned regarding the new product lineup, as the stock hung tough in a range between $498 and $500 for most of the day. LinkedIn $LNKD made additional news after hours as the price of its equity offering came in at $233 per share, which caused an additional sell-off in to that level after the market closed. $LNKD could be an interesting reversal candidate after the large move down in the last couple of days, and we may explore initiating a position here in the next few days, though external events have prevented us from having much conviction in new positions in recent days.

In terms of our portfolio, we made a conservative short in the $SPY in the middle of the day, with half of our position in weekly $165 puts coming off the books for an 11.4% gain. We don’t feel terribly comfortable having the other half of the position on overnight, but we get the feeling this market is on somewhat unsteady footing, and any new headlines pointing towards accelerated action in Syria could trigger a selloff. We wouldn’t discount the prospect of increased tapering talk either, as the Beige Book report suggests that it could be coming sooner rather than later as the broader economy appears to be making decent progress. We are of the belief that Ben Bernanke will want to initiate tapering before his time as Fed Chairman is up to prove that the economy is in a position to stand up on its own, and in our view it is time for that Fed to get out of the market’s way.

The big news in our portfolio today comes from one of our largest positions, FuelCell Energy $FCEL. The firm released its quarterly earnings after the bell that showed monstrous top-line growth of 81% year-over-year to a record $53.7 million. Gross margins came in at a record of 8.4%, though operating expenses remained on an upward trajectory. The company’s EPS was in line with estimates at -$0.03. The company also surprised investors by announcing a marketing agreement with NRG Energy that will boost FuelCell’s exposure and could aid cost savings. NRG will market the technology to its customers via either a PPA in which NRG would purchase the fuel cell power plants from $FCEL, or NRG could purchase the plants and sell electricity to the grid. This agreement should dramatically increase $FCEL’s exposure while providing avenues for larger projects down the road. Our stock and option positions in $FCEL should see a nice boost as the stock has been on the move after hours.

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Overall, a good day for Viking Trader. We’ll be back with more in the morning, but for now, hope everyone enjoys their evening.

All’s Quiet

Good morning y’all. It’s been a quiet morning in the markets as S&P futures have traded in a tight range, staying flat to down 2 points or so for most of the overnight session. International markets are mixed, with European indices showing red virtually across the board while some Asian indices are advancing, including the Nikkei. US weekly mortgage application data came in light with applications falling -.4% versus a more than 2% rise last week, though there seems to be little reaction to those numbers in US markets. We also saw Australian GDP posted slightly better-than-expected growth in the second quarter, an economy that has been in disrepair.

There isn’t a ton of company news out there this morning. LinkedIn $LNKD made some news with a $1 billion equity offering after the bell yesterday, and Apple $AAPL sent out invitations for its September 10th unveiling of the iPhone 5S and 5C, and the stock is ripping near $500 this morning after it was unable to sustain its rally yesterday. In the meantime, we will be curious to see the new products Samsung has to offer at today’s event, including what is believed to be the company’s foray into the smart watch market. Early chatter is that this device may have been rushed to market in an effort to be the first mover in the space ahead of Apple, but that remains to be seen.

It will important once again to be nimble today as the market has shown an unwillingness to commit to a general direction in recent sessions. $FCEL reports earnings after the bell, which we will be watching closely as we expect record revenues and potential breakeven on the bottom line as the street is calling for EPS of -$.03. Keep an eye on names that have held strong in recent sessions including technology bellwethers such as $FB, $NFLX, the 3D printers ($DDD in particular), the casinos, and perhaps $GOOG, which reclaimed its 8 EMA yesterday but has looked particularly weak since earnings.

Post Game – Check The Tape

That’s one way to start a month. What looked like a rip-roaring, bullish beginning for September was quickly erased by news from Washington regarding the Syrian situation. John Boehner offered the backing from the House of Representatives for President Obama’s military action in Syria, while the UN had its report from the region vetted while John Kerry and Chuck Hagel outlined a plan of action to Congress. Markets rallied some late in the session and closed off of the lows, with the S&P 500 closing at 1639.77, though well of the morning’s highs of 1651.35.

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Today was a lesson in how not to manage your trade. We identified two profitable entries, one in the morning and one in the afternoon, one long and one short, and we mismanaged the exits on each position. We took an early long in $DDD that should’ve been good for a nice gain had we been more prudent near the highs of the day. Conversely, we got long puts in the middle of Tesla’s $TSLA plummet from the highs that could have gone for a 20% gain, but we pushed the envelope thinking the broader market would continue to sell off. We lost some money on the $TSLA trade while breaking even in $DDD.

Our active positions performed fairly well today. Apple $AAPL managed to stay green all day despite the aggressive selloff, and AT&T got slammed for most of the day, closing near the lows while driving up put premiums. We also saw gains in our $TAP put position. Our focus turns to $FCEL tomorrow as the alternative energy company is set to report earnings. In case you missed it, we initiated a call position in the stock earlier today.

We held off on making any additional moves today as the market’s bounce off the lows made it difficult to have much conviction either way. Most names gave back a significant portions of early gains, and it became difficult to separate leaders from laggards at the end of the day as the market recovered from the lows. Hopefully tomorrow will provide some more direction, but we expect we will need to remain nimble in the coming days as the situation in Syria continues to play out. Once that situation clears, we must still deal with tapering and the debt ceiling, which will undoubtedly impact markets and could serve as a shot in the arm for the bears, but it is unlikely we will hear much on those topics until after Congress makes a decision on Syria.

Mid-day Update: That Escalated Quickly

Well, risk certainly happens fast, doesn’t it? The S&P 500 is quickly giving back all of the days gains as we appear to be filling this morning’s gap up. The $SPX traded as much as 1.12% higher early in today’s session, but comments from John Boehner that signaled Republican support of a Syrian strike reinvigorated bears and sent a wave of fear through the markets. Few names have held their gains from the early morning surge as the Syrian situation is acting as the wildcard we expected it to be. We tried to capitalize on the morning’s gains by taking a day trade in $DDD that we probably should have been more prudent with, as the stock traded as much as $1.48 above our entry of 53.30, but the stock never reached our initial aggressive target of $55 and we were stopped out at break even (actually, pennies above breakeven).

We initiated a position in FuelCell Energy $FCEL October $1 calls for $.35, and we remain the only action in the contracts on the day. The stock has held up well despite the accelerating selloff in the broader market, and we anxiously await earnings after the bell tomorrow. For more on this name, check out our post from yesterday here.

With the $VIX moving higher on speculation regarding military action in the Middle East, we are considering a position in $GLD as it approaches a potential breakout above $137.50. If you’ve been paying attention to the precious metal since the YTD bottom in late June, you are likely aware of the heaving buying activity that has been taking place at Goldman Sachs $GS – the same firm that was calling for gold selling for the majority of the second quarter. Perma-bears Zero Hedge highlighted the activity well here, and Syria may be the catalyst gold needs for another leg higher.

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Our portfolio has benefited from the sell-off for the most part, though we were doing fine with the morning’s rally thanks to our $AAPL position. $FCEL is down small while $AAPL is trying to hold its gains, but the aggressive sell-off in $T has been a boon for our puts, which have swung from $.18 to $.30 in half of a session. Our $TAP puts have also rebounded nicely and are trading $1.80/$1.90 at the time of writing.

We will keep you posted on any new positions we initiate, particularly in $GLD, $OIL or possibly $SPY if we close on the lows. It’s going to be hard to have conviction one way or the other on the broader market given the external variables, but there are still opportunities to capitalize on.